A Weekly Update from My Boss

Here's what Larry Klapow of Coldwell Banker has to say:

Coldwell Banker Weekly Market Watch

July 29, 2007

An island of good news appeared this week in a sea of negative media regarding weakness in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped five percent to 102.4 in June.

The index was created to be a more forward-looking snapshot on home sales than NAR's existing home sales report, which charts sales at the time of closing. The pending home sales index tracks when a sales agreement is signed, generally a month or two ahead of closing. The nationwide report is good news in that it indicates that home sales could see an increase in coming months.

In the Peninsula and San Francisco markets, the tighter inventory levels are creating pent-up demand among potential buyers. In Palo Alto, multiple offers on one property went up to 26. Another transaction closed in less than one week for a $16 million property. In San Francisco, a home in the West Portal area listed for $999,000 and received eight offers.

Considering that our more than 500 homes held open last week saw a surprising amount of traffic in most areas, it could be that those buyers who are unable to move into to the City or the Peninsula communities are starting to look in areas with more available inventory and a wider selection. In the Tri-Valley area, higher inventory is starting to level off while pending sales have remained relatively steady. Walnut Creek notes an increase in the number of entry level and mid-range priced homes sold. A small Richmond home and a Berkeley property each received nine offers.

In the mortgage arena, the media continues to hammer us with bad news. Since when is needing documentation, a decent credit score and perhaps a down payment a bad thing? The lenders are attempting to get back to where we once were and clean up years of sloppy practices. This is not a liquidity crisis that the media would like to make it out to be. The fact is that the fundamentals of the housing market are still strong. Interest rates are still low and we have a decent economy and job market. The stock market took a haircut last week but is still very strong when you look at the whole year. In the upscale sector there continues to be great demand. For the starter and median price ranges, the market and buyers are going to need to adjust to new lending standards. If you are a seller in this sector now, get the price right the first time or reduce if needed because we will be dealing with media shock and an adjustment period for a while.